When I’m 64.6 …
“Don’t Stop Working!” Not our advice, but the headline on a Slate article about one of the world’s longest-running sociological studies. Back in the 1920s, the American psychologist Lewis Terman gathered together 1500 exceptionally bright boys and girls and began a study of their lives that would continue for eight decades. Today, only a few of Terman’s “Termites” are still alive, and final conclusions from the study are being published.
One aim of the research was to find out what makes some people live longer than others. The findings are interesting: For instance, the death of a parent in childhood had relatively little impact on longevity, but parental divorce did. Adults who were gloomy and neurotic as children also tended to die relatively young. But so did those who had been extra cheerful, perhaps because of a devil-may-care attitude towards smoking and drinking in later life. The real winners in the longevity stakes were the conscientious kids, those who as adults maintained “a fairly high level of physical activity, a habit of giving back to the community, a thriving and long-running career, and a healthy marriage and family life”, as The Wall Street Journal puts it. Hence Slate’s advice to keep on working.
That may also be music to the ears of governments, which increasingly want to see people working later in life. As the latest edition of OECD Pensions at a Glance reports, around half of OECD countries have already started, or are planning to start, raising “pensionable ages” – the age at which people qualify for a full pension. By 2050, the average in OECD countries will reach just under 65 for both sexes – that’s nearly 2½ years above the current age for men and 4 years for women.
A key reason for this move lies in the fact that we’re living longer. As a result, most of us will be living off pensions for much longer than our grandparents did. In 1958, a man who reached pensionable age could look forward to living for around another 13 years; by 2050, that number is forecast to rise to just over 20 years. The figures for women are perhaps even more striking: 17 years in 1958, but 24½ years – almost a quarter of a century – in 2050.
Paying for all this risks being a major strain on the taxpayers of the future, especially as there will be relatively fewer of them than today: In most OECD countries, declining birth rates mean that non-working over-65s will account for an ever larger slice of the population. In 2000, about a third (33%) of people in OECD countries were aged over 65; by 2050, that number is forecast to exceed 41%.
So, in all probability we’ll all have to go on working a bit longer. Not everyone’s happy with that: In France, unions argue the burden will fall unfairly on blue-collar workers. But it’s interesting to note that the higher retirement ages of the future will in some ways take us back to where we were: Over the second half of the 20th century, the average pensionable age in OECD countries fell by two years, before beginning to rise again in the 1990s. If the forecasts are accurate, by the time we reach 2050 it will be only about 3 months above what it was in 1948, or 64.6 years.