To mark the centenary of The First World War, we will be publishing a series of articles looking at what has changed over the last century in a number of domains. Today’s post is by Eric Charbonnier of the OECD Education Directorate
If there’s one thing that’s changed rapidly over the past 100 years, it’s education. University for example used to be reserved for a small elite, whereas now around 40% of 25-34 year olds in OECD countries graduate from the education system with a higher diploma. Qualifications still play a major role in career development. The higher the diploma, the more its holder is likely to contribute to economic growth and, especially in the recent economic downturn, be protected from the worst impacts of the crisis. This is particularly true in France and other European countries where those with no qualifications find themselves in an extremely precarious position in the job market.
Mass expansion of higher education has other consequences too. A high school diploma used to open the door to many professions, but now that it has become the norm in most OECD countries, it no longer sets the graduate apart as it used to. It could even be argued that the main impact of such a diploma is now negative in a sense, since not having one has a bigger impact on a young person’s prospects than having one. Diplomas awarded for a general course are affected most. They are now seen as a stepping stone on the way to further education, rather than a milestone marking the transition to adult life and entry into the workforce.
Even France’s famous baccalaureate is coming under increasing criticism as being too expensive, too easy to obtain, and offering few prospects as such, despite its status as an irreproachable “national treasure”. Despite strong historical links dating from its support by Napoleon in 1808, there’s no doubt that the “bac” will evolve in the coming years to become more like what is found in other OECD countries – a diploma based on continuous assessment and a final exam that is limited to the fundamentals.
Access to education has become more democratic, even if social disparities still remain too important. But the gap is nothing like it was before. To return to the baccalaureate for a minute, the first woman wasn’t allowed to sit the exam until 1861, and even then, it was another half a century (1924) before men and women answered the same questions.
As well as becoming more democratic, education has become more globalised, with countries competing to attract the best students. The number of students studying in a foreign country was multiplied by 5 over 1975-2012, rising from 800,000 to 4.5 million. This trend looks set to strengthen in the coming years, and countries will develop multiple strategies not just to attract students, but to keep them in their workforce after graduation, as Australia and New Zealand do already.
The sudden transformations brought about by mass education and globalised education were not foreseen, but access to education and knowledge now condition success and personal fulfilment in modern society. Despite all the changes since 1914 though, one thing remains the same: the role of teachers is as central is transmitting knowledge nowadays as it has been since the dawn of time, despite the constant changes to their profession. When you read about schools a hundred years ago, or look at the early class photos, it’s striking how similar all the pupils are. Today, many teachers are used to having children from a wide range of backgrounds in their class. Teaching methods have changed significantly too, as has the level of knowledge and professionalism demanded of staff. But in 2014 as in 1914, teachers are still the key to students’ success, which is why a growing number of OECD countries are placing teachers’ initial training and professional development at the heart of education reforms.
Even if there has been a revolution in schooling over the past century, the quality of an education system will never be greater than the quality of its teachers. It was true in 1914, remains true in 2014, and will no doubt still be true in 2114.
Education GPS, the OECD source for internationally comparable data and analysis on education
A report from High Fliers Research published in February found that half the UK final year college students they interviewed believe they’ll have to take any job they’re offered, and a quarter say they’ve been forced to apply to employers that they aren’t really interested in.
We hear stories from most countries of people taking jobs they’re over-qualified for in any recession. The Insights blog asked Glenda Quintini and Paul Swaim of the OECD’s Employment Division what the impacts were on firms, workers and the economy as a whole.
Insights: Do employment data confirm what the High Fliers report implies – graduates are taking jobs they’re over-qualified for?
Paul Swaim: There’s anecdotal evidence of course, but it’s actually quite tricky to measure the extent of over-qualification, or under-qualification or the wrong qualification, come to that. Researchers have used various proxy measures to estimate how many workers hold qualifications that appear to be a poor match for their jobs, but no real consensus view has emerged concerning how pervasive skills mismatch is in the economy as a whole. It is even harder to assess the extent to which the recession is increasing the number of graduates moving into jobs that don’t make full use of their qualifications, because detailed labour market data only become available with a considerable time lag.
Insights: How about for an individual employer – surely getting extra human capital on the cheap is a boost?
Glenda Quintini: That’s certainly what you might expect, but you have to ask what “human capital” actually means. Qualifications are one aspect, but that’s not the same as skills. A worker who’s learnt on the job, over the years, may have skills that aren’t reflected in any formal qualification. On the other hand, university graduates may vary in the skills they possess and some of them may be just as skillful as somebody who quit formal education after high school. Several studies argue that it is the less-skilled university graduates that end up in jobs that require a high school diploma.
Paul Swaim: You also have to look at the relation between earnings and productivity. If you assume that earnings do in fact reflect productivity on the current job, then there is some evidence that workers who are “over-educated” for their jobs earn somewhat more than “correctly-educated” workers in the same type of job. On the other hand, they’re probably earning less than if they were in a job normally associated with their level of education.
So employers who can hire workers who are satisfied to work in jobs they are over-qualified for may attain higher productivity than they would have got by recruiting less educated workers. While it seems likely that some employers profit from being able to hire over-qualified workers during a recession, it is hard to pick up that phenomenon in the labour market data available to us. In addition to the delay in the availability of data, which I mentioned earlier, there is also the complication that recessions tend to reduce labour productivity and profitability through a number of channels that could easily swamp any gains from an increase in over-qualification.
Glenda Quintini: Another thing you have to remember is that graduates might be happy to take any job when they’re unemployed and there aren’t so many jobs going, but once they actually start working, their attitudes can change, especially if the labour market picks up. Many studies have shown that qualification mismatch affects job satisfaction and whether people intend to stay with the firm. You could argue that mismatch damages productivity through lower job satisfaction and higher turnover.
Insights: Could productivity in the economy as a whole be affected?
Paul Swaim: Yes, but in several different ways making it hard to predict the overall effect. In the short run, it certainly is more productive for graduates take jobs they are over-qualified for rather than remaining idle. However, we should not lose sight of the fact that most of these workers would be even more productive in jobs that made full use of their qualifications and thus provide a better return on the money spent on educating them. Productivity is thus likely to suffer over a longer time horizon unless these workers move into jobs that better match their qualifications. Unfortunately, the evidence is quite mixed about how often this sort of “catching-up” occurs, once the economy begins to recover.
Insights: Any final thoughts?
Glenda Quintini: Going back to Paul’s point on wage effects, a study that derives the productivity loss economy-wide in Australia from the wage penalties experienced by mismatched workers estimates a cost of mismatch of up to 2.6% of GDP in 2005 (the paper by Mavromaras et al. (2007) is available online at http://www.iza.org/ as discussion paper No. 2837).
Employment and the crisis from the forthcoming Insights From crisis to recovery
The educationtoday blog has a post about the impact of recessions on graduate employment and earnings