We don’t know the name, or the place and exact date of birth, of the baby who changed world history. My guess is that she was born somewhere in Africa in 2007. Not that she cared as she lay there all wrinkled and raging at the disagreeable turn her life had just taken, but it was thanks to her that for the first time ever, the world had more urban dwellers than country folk.
Africa itself won’t pass that landmark until sometime in the 2030s, but when you look at the numbers rather than the percentages, you can see why this year’s African Economic Outlook from the OECD Development Centre, African Development Bank, and UNDP is focusing on “Sustainable Cities and Structural Transformation”. In 1990, Africa was the world’s region with the smallest number of urban dwellers: 197 million. Now it has more than twice that at 472 million, and the urban population is expected to almost double again between 2015 and 2035. By 2020, Africa is forecast to have the second highest number of urban dwellers in the world (560 million) after Asia (2348 million).
Most of us, including many of the people who live in them, probably have a negative impression of African cities. Lagos-based Bayo Olupohunda warns that “intractable traffic gridlock, breakdown of law and order due to social exclusion, amenities crises are the signs of population apocalypse…”. Likewise, The Guardian is running a series on cities just now, and the headlines of its articles about African metropolises like Kinshasa and Nairobi talk about chaos and pollution.
It’s worth noting, though, that African urbanisation isn’t mainly due to the megacities we always hear about. In fact, between 2000 and 2010, urban agglomerations with fewer than 300,000 inhabitants accounted for 58% of Africa’s urban growth, compared with 29% for those with populations over a million. Nor is it due to rural-urban migration: migration accounts for less than a third of urban population growth in 22 African countries. It accounts for over 50% in only 7 countries (Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Lesotho, Namibia, Rwanda, Seychelles and South Africa, whereas it contributed to half of Asia’s urban population growth. The Outlook groups African countries into five types according to their stages in three processes: urbanisation, fertility transition, and structural transformation.
Whatever their individual characteristics, the Outlook, exposes a daunting series of problems facing Africa’s urban areas. In many African countries, a large portion of the urban labour force remains trapped in low-productivity informal services activities, and access to public goods is unequal. Moreover, despite Africa’s slow industrialisation, the costs of environmental degradation are large and increasing, adding to the economic and social challenges of urbanisation.
The speed of the economic transformation could be a problem as well. Some economists are concerned that African countries – and developing countries generally – are moving into the service sector too early in their development trajectory and that this “premature deindustrialisation” may damage future growth prospects by depriving economies of the benefits of industrialisation for sustained growth and economic convergence. For example, if people are moving out of farming into hotel and restaurant work or street trading, especially informal jobs, the sectors they move into are likely to see productivity growth slowed by this influx of cheap labour.
And yet, despite all the readily available negative evidence, the Outlook argues that urbanisation could boost structural transformation – moving economic resources from low to higher productivity activities, essentially from traditional agriculture to manufacturing or services. In part, this view is based on economic history. Cities everywhere have traditionally provided “a large and diversified pool of labour, a more dynamic local market, more cost-effective access to suppliers and specialised services, lower transaction costs, more diversified contact networks and greater knowledge-sharing opportunities, and an environment that encourages innovation”.
They are also ideal for cashing in on one of the trends defining the new economy. Often this is referred to as the “sharing economy”, but as Diane Coyle argued at an OECD seminar earlier this year, “matching” is a better term to describe what platforms like Uber or AirBnB do – they match the demand for something to those supplying it. Cities help firms match their requirements for labour, materials, and premises better than towns or rural area. Larger markets bring more choices and opportunities. Cities also afford firms access to a wider range of shared services and infrastructure because of the scale of activity. Firms gain from the superior flow of information in cities, which promotes more learning and innovation, and results in higher value-added products and processes.
Bayo Olupohunda recognises this, arguing that if well-managed, Lagos could be efficient, “enabling economies of scale and network effects. Furthermore, the proximity and diversity of people as seen in Lagos can spark innovation and create employment, as exchanging of ideas breeds new ideas”. He also recognises that these benefits don’t come automatically though, and that “the availability and quality of infrastructure are at the core of many of the challenges faced by a rapidly urbanized Lagos.”
The Outlook makes the same diagnosis for African cities in general, citing three policy-related issues: public and private actors have not sufficiently upgraded the urban infrastructure; steadily high fertility rates in urban areas have contributed to overcrowding through fast urban growth; and dysfunctional real estate markets have led to the explosion of informal housing. To tackle the problems, governments and the private sector will have to invest twice as much by 2050 as they have since the years of independence, but policies to restrain urbanisation have tended to be more popular than policies to use urbanisation to boost structural transformation.
This may be changing. The Draft Africa Common Position on Habitat III, the Third UN Conference on Housing and Sustainable Urban Development taking place in October, states that Sustainable Development Goal 11 to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable, “needs to be considered together with goals 8, 9 and 10 on matters relating to promoting economic growth as well as full and productive employment; building infrastructure, industrialization and innovation, as well as reducing inequality within and between countries”.
Today’s post, by Karl P. Sauvant, Resident Senior Fellow, Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment, Columbia University, is published in collaboration with the 2016 OECD Development Co-operation Report: The Sustainable Development Goals as Business Opportunities.
International investment, and in particular foreign direct investment, has an important role to play in helping to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. It can be a powerful international mechanism for mobilising the tangible and intangible assets (such as capital, technology, skills, access to markets) that are essential for sustainable growth and development.
Yet to fulfil this potential, foreign direct investment must increase substantially; it must be geared as much as possible towards sustainable development; and it must take place within a framework of international investment law and policy that is enabling, yet at the same time respectful of host governments’ own legitimate public policy objectives.
Foreign direct investment flows reached their peak in 2007 at around USD 2 trillion, dropping to USD 1.2 trillion by 2009 as a result of the international financial crisis. While this represents a relatively small share – about 10% – of gross domestic capital formation, in individual countries this share can be even higher than domestic investment.
To help meet the investment needs of the future, these flows have to increase substantially. There is no apparent reason why they could not do so over the longer term, say to a level of USD 4 or 5 trillion annually.
How to get there? Improving the economic determinants, the principal factors governing investment decisions, is fundamental. Official development assistance will continue to be important, especially for the least developed countries, including to leverage higher foreign direct investment flows. This is a long-term challenge.
However, national regulatory frameworks and investment promotion efforts can be improved in the short term, especially in the least developed countries.
The first challenge is to increase foreign direct investment through a concerted international effort to help developing countries, and especially the least developed among them, to improve their foreign direct investment regulatory frameworks and investment promotion capacities. At present, there is no such international effort – along the lines of the Aid-for-Trade Initiative and especially the Trade Facilitation Agreement – in the area of foreign direct investment. But in a world of global value chains, these trade arrangements can help only so much, precisely because they address only one side of the task, namely to increase trade. But a concerted international effort for foreign direct investment, such as an international Aid-for-Investment Initiative or even a Sustainable Investment Facilitation Understanding, could help developing countries, and especially the least developed among them, rapidly to improve their regulatory frameworks as well as their capacity to promote investment – thereby helping to increase investment flows to developing countries.
Encouraging higher foreign direct investment flows is, however, not enough.
The second challenge is to promote foreign direct investment that is geared as closely as possible towards sustainable development: “sustainable foreign direct investment for sustainable development”. This presents the challenge of defining “sustainable foreign direct investment”. A first approximation could be: commercially viable investment that makes a maximum contribution to the economic, social and environmental development of the host country and takes place in the context of fair governance mechanisms, as established by host countries and reflected, for instance, in the incentives they offer. Yet any definition needs to be operationalised. So this challenge would also involve developing an indicative list of sustainability characteristics to be considered by governments seeking to attract sustainable foreign direct investment (and to encourage sustainable domestic investment). Such a list would also be a helpful tool for international arbitrators considering (as they should) the development impact of investments, as well as for identifying the mechanisms – beyond those deployed to attract foreign direct investment in general – that encourage the flow of sustainable investment and increase its benefits for host countries.
The third challenge is to reform the international investment law and policy regime. National foreign direct investment rule making increasingly takes place in the framework of international investment law and policy. For this reason, it is important to ensure that the international investment regime constitutes an enabling framework for encouraging the flow of sustainable foreign direct investment, while at the same time allowing governments to pursue their legitimate public policy objectives. This requires asking several questions, including: How can the objective of sustainable development be made the lodestar of the international law and policy regime? What are the implications of such a concept for the regime’s rights and obligations? How will this affect the mechanism for settling disputes between investors and states? This last function is central to the regime and gives it its strength, yet it is precisely the existing dispute-settlement mechanism that is strongly questioned – especially by non-governmental organisations, but also by a number of governments. Any reform needs to address this challenge adequately to avoid threatening the very legitimacy of the regime.
In conclusion, governments need to find ways and means to increase sustainable foreign direct investment flows within a reformed international investment law and policy regime to realise the sustainable development potential of this investment.
Click to see full size
Faisal Naru, Bill Below, Filippo Cavassini, and Anna Pietikainen, OECD Directorate for Public Governance and Territorial Development
The “Men in Black” are a special unit charged with regulating Alien activity on planet Earth (at least so it is in the film with Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones). Their job is to operate incognito, working behind the scenes to avoid an intergalactic apocalypse. When uncovered, special technology allows them to eradicate all knowledge of themselves and their function.
At least to most of us, regulators are a lot like the “Men in Black,” ensuring that trains will run on time, there is clean water in the tap, lights switch on, the broadband is working and there is cash in the ATM machines, largely going unnoticed, that is, until something goes wrong, stops working or crashes.
Unlike the “Men in Black,” regulatory agencies do not operate incognito—at least they shouldn’t. They must be part of a well-functioning and transparent governance ecosystem that provides these important public services and is held accountable for the performance of its different actors. Being part of this ecosystem, however, carries a number of risks.
Different stakeholders—whether the regulated industry, government, politicians, consumers or other interest groups—have powerful incentives to influence, or capture, regulatory policies. The danger of capture is all the more present because of the proximity of regulator and the regulated. We need regulators to be independent, just as we need our judges and referees to be independent. Independence cannot come at the price of accountability or engagement, and regulators need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the market through interaction with industry and consumers. Autonomy should still be compatible with maintaining helpful feedback loops between the regulator and its governmental executive overseers.
The challenge for regulators is this: they must be engaged but not enmeshed, insulated but not insular.
Not easy to achieve when you consider that the life of a regulatory agency is fraught with potential entry points for undue influence. These “pinch points” are specific to the regulator’s environment and are amplified when two or more events occur at the same time. An example might be a political election coinciding with a rise in crude oil prices and a change in the head of the agency. Successfully navigating these powerful forces can be accomplished with good governance and clear regulatory policies addressing such issues as agency finances, staff behaviour, the appointment and removal of leadership, the way in which agency intersects with political cycles, and the interaction with the various actors in the regulatory sphere.
Given the challenging context within which regulators operate, the question is how to limit undue influence in practice and create a strong culture of independence. Independence is not a static state achieved once and for all by statute, but an active objective that the regulatory agency must be prepared to approach proactively and continuously. While institutional design is one part of optimizing independence, it is not sufficient. A regulator can be part of a ministry and yet be more “independent” than a regulator in a separate body.
The OECD has set out to understand how regulatory agencies around the world are structured to be protected from undue influence. The OECD has developed a unique dataset of the formal arrangements for independence of regulators across 33 OECD countries, complemented by detailed case studies showing what holds regulators accountable for their performance.
A follow-up study, recently published as ‘Being an Independent Regulator,’ has filled in many of the gaps in our understanding of how de facto independence plays out in the daily life of regulators, differing from other research on independence, which tends to focus only on formal (de jure) institutional arrangements. Forty-eight regulators from around the world participated, representing institutional arrangements including formally independent regulatory institutions, ministerial regulators, and single- and multi-sector regulators.
A key conclusion of this work is that regulatory independence is not an end in itself, and that it should be seen as a means of ensuring effective and efficient public service delivery by the different market players. Developing a culture of independence is just another way of saying nurturing better performance.
Being an independent regulator cannot mean adopting the cloak of invisibility and working behind the scenes like the Tommy Lee Jones and Will Smith characters. Regulators must fully engage with all stakeholders. Maintaining independence in the midst of significant pressure from all sides requires governance structures aimed at cultivating and maintaining a culture of independence.
It may not keep the galaxy safe, but it will ensure that regulatory agencies better meet their mandates to serve the public good.
For more information, follow this link.
OECD (2016), Being an Independent Regulator, The Governance of Regulators, OECD Publishing, Paris
OECD. (2016), Governance of Regulators’ Practices: Accountability, Transparency and Co-ordination, The Governance of Regulators, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Koske,I., Naru.F, et al. (2016), “Regulatory management practices in OECD countries“, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, No. 1296, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Erik Solheim, Former Chair of the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC), based on the editorial of the 2016 OECD Development Co-operation Report: The Sustainable Development Goals as Business Opportunities.
In 2015, when world leaders adopted the Sustainable Development Goals, we committed to the most inclusive, diverse and comprehensive and ambitious development agenda ever. By doing so, we acknowledged that development challenges are global challenges. The new global goals represent a universal agenda, applying equally to all countries in the world.
The year 2015 was the best in history for many people. We are taller, and better nourished and educated than ever. We live longer. There is less violence than at any other point in history. Over the past decades many countries, spearheaded by the Asian “miracles” – such as in Korea, the People’s Republic of China and Singapore – have had enormous development success. By believing in the market and the private sector, these nations have experienced strong economic growth and several hundred million people have been brought out of poverty. The debate within the development community on the importance of markets and the private sector is a thing of the past. The debate is won.
But based on astonishing success, we need to bring everyone on board. The 2030 aim is to eradicate extreme poverty, but to do it in an environmentally sustainable way. Luckily – for the first time in history – humanity has the capacity, knowledge and resources needed to achieve this. Never before was this the case. The leaders of the past have never set such goals, nor did they have at their disposal the policies and the resources to reach them. The Sustainable Development Goals cover the economic, social and environmental dimensions of life. And they emphasise that increased co-operation between the public and the private sector is vital to reach them.
Implementing the new Sustainable Development Goals will require all hands on deck, working in concert to build on each other’s strengths. In this report we look at the opportunities for businesses both to make money and do good for people and the environment. We must go beyond traditional thinking that business revenues depend on destroying the environment. Smart investment in sustainable development is not charity – it is good business and it opens up opportunities.
In developing countries, small and medium enterprises are considered the engine of growth. In Asia, they make up to 98% of all enterprises and employ 66% of the workforce. Especially for green growth, small and medium businesses can play an important role by acting as suppliers of and investors in affordable and local green technologies. For instance, in Africa several businesses offer “pay-as-you-go” solar energy to low-income households that do not have access to central resources.
Over the next 15 years, billions will be invested annually by the public and private sectors. We need to make sure that this money creates jobs, boosts productive capacity and enables local firms to access new international markets in a sustainable way. What’s more, these flows are often coupled with transfer of technology that has positive and long-term effects.
This report cites the results of interviews with executives from 40 companies that had performed above the industry average in terms of both financial and sustainability-performance metrics in various sectors – including oil and mining, gym shoes, soup, cosmetics and telecommunications. The research demonstrates that sustainable action can contribute to increased efficiency and profits, gains above and beyond their social and environmental benefits. The returns on capital include reduced risk, market and portfolio diversification, increased revenue, reduced costs, and improved products.
We need to take these experiences further. The 17 Sustainable Development Goals represent a pipeline of sustainable investment opportunities for responsible business. But fulfilling that potential will mean ensuring that business does good – for people and the planet – while doing well economically.
Although some countries are making progress, no country has achieved environmental sustainability. The worse things get, the more difficult it will be to find solutions. We need to take action now. There is more bang for every buck when profits are combined with bringing people out of poverty, improving environmental sustainability and ensuring gender equality. For example:
- Ethiopia’s growth has benefited the poor and the country aims to become a middle-income country without increasing its carbon emissions.
- Brazil has reduced poverty and equality while cutting deforestation by 80%.
- Costa Rica has revolutionised conservation by providing cash payments for people who maintain natural resources. Forests now cover more than 50% of the country’s land, compared to 21% in the 1980s.
- The Indonesian rainforests, the largest in Asia, are doing much better than recently. Deforestation decreased for the first time in 2013 and the positive trend is continuing. The main palm oil companies have made a no new deforestation pledge.
Poverty reduction can be green and fair. But we need to remember that neither developing nor developed countries will sacrifice development for the environment. But development comes to a stop if natural resources are exhausted, water continues to be polluted and soils are degraded beyond manageable levels.
For those who do not benefit from all the success stories, it is necessary to identify and replicate good policies that actually improve lives. Official development assistance is important for the least developed nations and countries in conflict. Aid remains at a record high at USD 132 billion in 2015, but private investments are more than 100 times greater than aid and more important for poverty reduction and economic growth.
In order to make the most of private investments for sustainable development, it is fundamental to know more about how much is being mobilised from the private sector as a result of public sector interventions. In this report the OECD describes how it monitors and measures the amounts being invested. The European Union found in 2014 that by blending public and private investments, EU countries used EUR 2 billion in public finance grants to mobilise around EUR 40 billion for things like constructing electricity networks, financing major road projects, and building water and sanitation infrastructure in recipient countries. We should be inspired by this example to do more. Business prospers when society prospers.
Each and every decision we take today related to private investment will have historic implications. We must learn that more and better investment is possible. Balancing economic growth with environmental sustainability is not only feasible – it is fundamental.
In this report we look at the opportunities the new Sustainable Development Goals offer for doing good business, for profits, people and the planet. It offers guidelines and practical examples of how all sectors of society can work together to deliver the 2030 Agenda. Investing in sustainable development is not charity, it is smart. We just need to go ahead and do it.