Corruption – a question of perceptions
A few recent headlines: “Denmark, New Zealand and Singapore top list of least corrupt countries” , “The 10 Most (and 10 Least) Corrupt Countries in the World”, “Israel stalls in rot ranking” . In case you’re wondering, the stories were all about Transparency International, which ranks countries on a scale from zero to ten. Low scores, for example Somalia’s 1.1, indicate severe corruption; high scores, such as Denmark or Singapore’s 9.3, suggest public and commercial life are squeaky clean.
Now 15 years old, the Transparency International (TI) index is probably regarded as the leading tool for measuring corruption worldwide. Which is interesting, because it doesn’t actually measure corruption. Instead, it measures perceptions of corruption. The distinction is crystal clear in the name of the index – it’s the Corruption Perceptions Index, not the Corruption Index – but it’s often blurred in media coverage. Does it matter? In some ways, not really.
Corruption is, by its nature, secretive and can’t be measured directly. (Even detecting it is difficult, not least for tax officials.) So, instead, corruption has to be “measured” through surveys. These usually involves asking businesspeople, international officials and others questions, such as the extent to which they’ve encountered corrupt practices. TI pulls together 13 of the most reputable surveys from around the world, does a lot of number crunching, and produces its index. But, in other ways, the tendency of the media and investors to ignore the “Perceptions” bit of the Corruptions Perceptions Index may matter a great deal.
At the very least, we need to ask whose perceptions are being measured. In many cases, “it’s ‘experts’ or business managers, many of whom live outside the countries they are rating”, argue Charles Oman and Christiane Arndt in a new paper from the OECD Development Centre . By contrast, it’s rare to hear of the experiences of the man or woman in the street, in part because compiling such data is expensive and time consuming. The paper argues that there are other issues, too, that need to kept in mind when it comes to “governance” indicators, such as the Corruption Perceptions Index and the World Governance Indicators . One is the use of a single “point score”, e.g., Somalia’s corruption rating of 1.1. What does that number actually represent? First, it reflects realities – or at least perceived realities – on the ground. But, of course, reality is complex, and can’t always be represented by a single number.
Nevertheless, says the paper, because of “the well documented tendency of people to believe that numbers are facts” the number can come to be seen as the reality, and may shape important decisions on a country’s future, such as foreign investment. Second, the number represents the output from some tricky statistical calculations. Like most such outputs, it comes with a health warning – in this case a “confidence interval”. In effect, that’s a statistician’s way of indicating that the difference between, say, Somalia’s 1.1 and Myanmar’s 1.4 may – or may not – be significant.
Like any reputable agency, TI clearly indicates the survey’s confidence indicators. However, journalists and investors may be less discriminating: As Oman and Arndt write, “Users tend widely to use countries’ governance scores as if they were accurate to a degree they are not.” So, should we ignore Corruption Perceptions Index? Not at all, but like any survey it has limits. Understanding these can ensure it’s not misused, and so ultimately make it more useful.
Measuring Governance, by Charles P. Oman and Christiane Arndt